Indian Wells Picks: Tennis Predictions, Odds, Best Bets

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You will hear that there is a huge tournament going on this month.

That’s right, the 2023 Indian Wells Masters, aka the BNP Paribas Open, begins in earnest this week in California’s Coachella Valley.

Known as the unofficial “fifth major” of the tennis calendar, Indian Wells is one of the sport’s biggest events and features a deep field of 96 competitors in both men’s and women’s singles.

Before breaking down the field, it’s worth mentioning that Novak Djokovic would be the favorite to win Indian Wells, but is still unable to compete in the United States due to his vaccination status.

With Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios all missing, the tournament opens up a bit.

That said, Daniil Medvedev is a +250 favorite at DraftKings.

The former world No. 1 is coming off a monumental week in defeating Djokovic en route to the Dubai title.

Carlos Alcaraz is the second favorite at +650 and looks dynamic since returning from a long injury that cost him a spot at the Australian Open.

Alcaraz has won and finished runner-up in the two tournaments he has played in 2023, although both were on clay.

Daniel MedvedevGetty Images

Alcaraz should like the Indian Wells conditions, though.

Unlike the Australian Open or the US Open, conditions at Indian Wells are relatively slow.

This means that players who rely solely on pressing through their opponent have to come up with a plan B, and players who don’t have a great serve but are quality on their return can dig.

Jannik Sinner (+850) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (+900) are the only other players in single figures. American Taylor Fritz is 22/1 to defend his title here.

Here are our best bets for this week’s Indian Wells:

Alex de Minaur (50/1, BetRivers)

It seems de Minaur is always on the verge of a breakthrough but can never quite get that result that takes him to the next level.

Maybe it’s time.

Alex de MinaurAlex de MinaurGetty Images,

The hard-working Aussie had encouraging runs at the Australian Open and the Mexican Open in Rotterdam before taking home the title, beating Holger Rune and Tommy Pauli.

A player who relies on his work-rate and rally tolerance for his power, de Minaur should be well-suited to the Indian Wells conditions.

Tommy Paul (50/1, BetMGM)

2023 has already been incredible for Paul.

The New Jersey native reached the semifinals at the Australian Open and was runner-up to Mexico’s de Minaur, so the form is obviously there.

Much like De Minaur, Paul is the type of player who gives opponents fits with his speed, stability and rallying ability.

His game is built for those slow conditions.

Karen Khachanov (66/1, BetRivers)

I don’t know what Khachanov needs to do to earn the respect of the betting market.

The Russian has been in the finals of the last two Grand Slams and has a game that can translate well to those conditions.

Khachanov will have to beat Casper Ruud and Daniil Medvedev on his way to the semifinals, so maybe that’s why his number is inflated, but he’s hit the ceiling to win those two matches.

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