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Last week, I gave Final Four futures to Florida Atlantic (+500) and Kansas State (+320) at The Post, so I’m in a good position for the two teams to meet in the Elite Eight.
In this matchup, however, I give a slight edge to the amazing Owls.
Kansas State likes to play fast and force turnovers.
The only problem with that strategy is that the Wildcats can be forced into mistakes.
KSU is ranked 263rd in turnover percentage and will now face an FAU team that plays a similar style and likes to pressure the basketball.
Kansas State vs. FAU selection
(6:09 p.m. Eastern)
More of FAU’s big edges are offensive rebounds and second chance opportunities.
The Owls are 95th in offensive rebounding percentage (KenPom) and 38th in second-chance conversion percentage (Haslametrics).
FAU’s advantage on the offensive board against a Kansas State team that struggles with defensive rebounding (248th) should lead to easy buckets for the Owls.
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Florida Atlantic is also the deepest team. The Owls rank 14th in bench minutes, while Kansas State is a distant 325th.
Depth should be a factor in the second half and that could factor into the miss.
The Wildcats rank 60th last in opponent shooting per game, so I expect FAU to have plenty of opportunities at the free throw line.
Bet on college basketball?
Kansas State plays at a frenetic pace and FAU will be happy to run with the Wildcats.
I lean FAU in a close game, but my favorite game is the Owls total over 71.5.
Win or lose, turnovers, second-chance buckets and foul line chances should get FAU over this total.
Kansas State vs FAU prediction
FAU team total over 71.5 points (-120, FanDuel)