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We are approaching the opening stretch of the NBA regular season.
We have teams fighting for qualification, we have teams fighting to make the playoffs, and we have teams doing their best to have a better chance at the Victor Wembanyama Draws.
There are six games on the schedule tonight and after scouring the PrizePicks lobby, I’ve found my four favorite picks for Monday night.
Andrew Nembhard over 14.5 points
Rookies are usually volatile and that has been the case for Nembhard this season. However, it looks like he’ll come into his own at the end of the season.
With Tyrese Haliburton out for the last four games, Nembhard has scored 22, 24, 15 and 19 points.
He’s exceeded his point projection in each of those games, and I like to see that streak continue tonight against the Hornets, who are sixth in pace and 21st in defensive rating this season.
Nembhard should have a high usage rate regardless, but could be even higher tonight if Chris Duarte and/or Bennedict Mathurin are ruled out as well.
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Nick Richards over 8.5 rebounds
The Hornets traded Mason Plumlee and Mark Williams has missed the last four games with a thumb injury.
That’s given Richards a chance to start and he’s been an elite rebounder in limited action this season.
He averaged 7.8 rebounds per 24 minutes. At RotoGrinders, we are scheduled to play 28 minutes, which puts him in line for just over 10 rebounds.
The matchup also works out well for him, as the Pacers are 28th in rebounding and it’s a rare game where the Hornets aren’t huge underdogs (1.5 point spread).
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Mitchell Robinson #23 of the New York Knicks and Keegan Murray #13 of the Sacramento Kings battle for a reboundNBAE via Getty Images
Mitchell Robinson over 16.5 points + rebounds
On the season, Robinson is averaging 7.5 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, which is nearly identical to his projection on PrizePicks tonight.
However, he has exceeded 16.5 points + rebounds in five of his last seven games.
He has been much more effective since returning from injury and finds himself in a good place this afternoon.
They are playing at home against the Wolves, who are the fourth worst rebounding team in the league.
Robinson should spend most of the night in the paint, as Rudy Gobert rarely strays far from the rim.
De’Aaron Fox #5 of the Sacramento Kings celebratesGetty Images
De’Aaron Fox under a fantastic 44.5 score
We have to look for value at all times and PrizePicks’ fantasy projection of 44.5 points seems too high for us tonight.
A matchup against the Jazz is incredibly enticing, but we have Fox projected for 40 fantasy points at RotoGrinders.
There’s a lot of gap in those two projections, which creates value on the lower side of this pick.
There should be plenty of scoring in this game, but Fox has scored less than a fantastic 44.5 points in five of its last six games.
Let’s go 4-4 tonight.
You can follow Derek Farnsworth on Twitter @RG_Notorious